While the poll could reassure Liz Truss that she is pursuing the right strategy, separate More in Common research due to be unveiled at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham on Monday suggests the Tories stand to lose votes on their right flank.
In focus groups in the Red Wall seats over the past fortnight, More in Common has identified a new group of voters – dubbed “disillusioned defectors” – who could fuel a wave of support for the populist right, similar to that observed in Italy, Sweden and France. .
Testing a series of “populist policies,” from exiting the European Court of Human Rights to increasing criminal sentences and ending public funding for diversity and inclusion initiatives, a core group of ‘About 20% of Red Wall Conservative voters have consistently said they would support a party that advocates these policies.
Analysis of the Red Wall seats won by the Tories in 2019 found that if this group changed its support to a new populist party, the Tories would lose 20 seats to Labor – even if Sir Keir Starmer’s party did not win not a single extra vote.
At a focus group in the Don Valley constituency in South Yorkshire on Thursday, voters commented on the mess in financial markets this week.
Daniella, a nurse, said: ‘The pound has crashed, obviously that’s massively affected the banks with mortgages and all that…it’s only going to drive up the cost of living even more.
But despite the chaos, the group didn’t want to see another leadership change that could open the door to more unrest.
Shelley, a teacher, said: ‘We’ve had too much change already and I think we need to put policies in place that actually have time to start working.