GDP growth estimated at 5.97% for the financial year 2021-22

Pakistan estimated gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 6% for the current fiscal year, with major contributions from the manufacturing and services sectors.

Contrary to the IMF projection of a GDP growth rate of 4% for Pakistan, the Pakistani Muslim League-led government Nawaz has estimated a provisional GDP growth rate of 5.97% for the year 2021- 22.

The 105th meeting of the National Accounts Committee to consider the final, revised and provisional GDP estimates for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively was held on Wednesday under the chairmanship of the Secretary of MoPD&SI.

The provisional GDP growth rate for the year 2021-22 is estimated at 5.97%, with widespread growth seen across all sectors of the economy.

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The growth of the agricultural, industrial and services sectors is respectively 4.40%, 7.19% and 6.19%. Similarly, the growth of important crops during this year is 7.24%.

Growth in production of major crops, namely cotton, rice, sugar cane and maize, is estimated at 17.9%, 10.7%, 9.4% and 19.0% respectively.

Cotton harvest increased from 7.1 million bales reported last year to 8.3 million bales; Rice production increased from 8.4 million tons to 9.3 million tons; Sugar cane production increased from 81.0 million tons to 88.7 million tons; Maize production increased from 8.4 million tons to 10.6 million tons respectively, whole wheat production decreased from 27.5 million tons to 26.4 million tons. Other crops recorded a growth of 5.44% mainly due to an increase in the production of pulses, vegetables, fodder, oilseeds and fruits. The livestock sector shows a growth of 3.26%. The growth of forestry is 3.13% and that of fishing 0.35%.

The entire industrial sector shows an increase of 7.19%. The mining and quarrying sector fell by 4.47% due to lower production of other minerals as well as lower exploration costs. The large-scale manufacturing industry is mainly driven by QIM data (from July 2021 to March 2022) which shows an increase of 10.4%. The main contributors to this growth are food (11.67%), tobacco (16.7%), textiles (3.19%), clothing (33.95%), wood products ( 157.5%), chemicals (7.79%), steel products (16.55%). %), automobiles (54.10%), furniture (301.83%) and other manufacturing industries (37.83%). The electricity, gas and water industry shows a growth of 7.86% mainly due to an increase in subsidies in 2021-22. Value added in the construction industry, mainly driven by construction-related spending by industries, recorded a modest growth of 3.14% mainly due to an increase in government spending.

The service sector posted growth of 6.19%. The wholesale and retail trade industry increased by 10.04%. It depends on agricultural production, manufacturing and imports. The growth of trade value added relating to agriculture, manufacturing industry and imports is 3.99%, 9.82% and 19.93% respectively. The transportation and warehousing industry increased by 5.42% due to an increase in the gross value added of railways (41.85%), air transport (26.56%), road transport (4.99%) and warehousing. Accommodation and catering activities increased by 4.07%. Similarly, information and communication increased by 11.9% due to improved telecommunications, computer programming, consulting and related activities.

The finance and insurance industry shows an overall increase of 4.93% mainly due to an increase in deposits and loans. Real estate activities grew by 3.7% while public administration and social security activities (public administration) recorded negative growth of 1.23% due to high deflators. Education grew by 8.65% thanks to public sector spending. Human health and social work activities also increased by 2.25% due to government spending. The provisional growth of other private services is 3.76%.

Overall, the country’s GDP at current market prices reached Rs 66,949 trillion in 2021-22, resulting in an increase in per capita income from Rs 268,223 in 2020-21 to Rs 314,353 in 2021-22. of the economy in dollars in 2021-22 amounts to 383 billion dollars.

According to the details, the meeting also updated the provisional GDP estimates for the year 2020-21 and the revised GDP estimates for the year 2019-20 presented at the 104th CNS meeting held in January 2022 on the based on the latest available data.

The final GDP growth rate for the year 2019-2020 was estimated at -0.94%, compared to -1.0% in the revised estimates. The revised GDP growth rate for the year 2020-21 is 5.74% which has been provisionally estimated at 5.57%.

The crops sub-sector improved from 5.92% to 5.96%. Other crops improved from a provisional growth of 8.08% to 8.27% in the revised estimates. The growth of the industrial sector in the revised estimates is 7.81% against 7.79% in the provisional estimates while the growth of the services sector improved from 5.7% to 6.0%.

Controversy over the resignation of the chief economist:

Earlier on Wednesday, it emerged that the chief economist of the planning commission, Dr Ahmad Zubair, had resigned from his post due to pressure from senior officials in the planning and finance ministries on the GDP figures.

Sources on condition of anonymity said Planning Minister and State Finance Minister Ayesha Ghous Pasha asked relevant people from the planning commission to sit down with the finance ministry’s chief economic adviser on growth figures by saying GDP growth would be around 4% for the current fiscal year.

When the head of the planning commission said that they made a presentation to the previous minister of planning according to the statistics of the production data of various sectors, it indicates that the GDP growth will be around 5.5 to 6%, this Minister of State for Finance said there was a shortfall in the projected wheat crop projection. The official replied that even with this shortfall of 0.1 million metric tons, the production of sugar cane, rice and cotton as well as tomatoes was considerably higher.

Officials further stated that it would not be possible to show less growth based on the data available to all stakeholders. Therefore, such an effort would affect the compromise of PBS data.

Later a letter published by Ahmad Zubair stated that there was trending news on social and electronic media that I resigned from the position of Chief Economist of the Planning Commission due to attempts to manipulation regarding FY22 GDP growth estimates. estimate of GDP growth.